UNMASKING HIDDEN VEHICLES OF CORRUPTION IN NIGERIA – PT1

The more you look the less you see.

This is the first in a series of articles I will be writing on the hidden and subtle ways in which corruption has become entrenched in Nigeria and solution to them. This relates to successive governments and not just the current administration. You cannot pick up any newspaper in Nigeria today without evidence of the war of words between pro and anti Jonathan compatriots battling it out for supremacy of idea. Those who are in the anti-Jonathan camp, call him clueless, non-performing and corrupt. And the pro-Jonathan people call him highly performing, intelligent and list his achievement in office so far. Regardless of which camp you belong, one question should exercise your mind in this debate. And that is: How difficult is it to agree on what “performing” or “delivering” is?  To me some things are pretty obvious. If the mission is to travel from Lagos to Kano; and you reach Abuja; it is pretty straightforward to say that you are nearer Kano than Lagos. While admitting you are not yet in Kano; we should all be able to agree that you are closer to the destination than from where you started the journey.

With Nigerians so far apart on whether Jonathan is a performing president or not; it is clear one of the camps need to take the reality check or take the truth serum. But which camp? The Pro-Jonathan or Anti-Jonathan camp. The parameters to measure the performance of every government ion the world fall into two broad categories. There are Objective parameters and then there are the Subjective parameters.

The Objective parameters are mainly statistical in nature. These are measurable. These tend not to be disputable… mainly. So if the unemployment rate was 30% when a president comes to office and it is now less at 20%; then you can Objectively say fewer people are unemployed and things are better in that objective area. Everybody pro or anti tends to agree on such in civilized political climate.

In the heat of the acrimonious and bitterly fought US Presidential campaign; even the strongest Obama supporters did not dispute the Objective measures of Rate of unemployment; the level of the economic Deficit; or even the number of jobs created or lost every quarter in the US economy. They can dispute its impact or importance or effects; but the raw Objective facts are never in dispute. So there is unity around the Objective measure, even if its interpretation is argued. But it amazes me that in Nigeria; we cannot even agree on the Objective data in the first place. This is partly due to general distrust in Government and also a lack of credible and independent Data collection or Statistical agency. So the statistic you get depend on who you talk to?

With Lagos State having more secondary schools than ALL the core Northern states put together; yet the national Census figures says that Kano state alone has more population than Lagos. You can begin to see the embers of the distrust in government statistics in the country. Even when the CBN governor gives the national inflation rate figure; people wonder if he took his measurements only in Aso Rock as it does not reflect the realities of people personal economy. There is widespread distrust in any statistics in Nigeria; especially any that has government as its source.

So the first task of the Jonathan administration; in order to help itself and prove his performance claim; is to set up an Independent and credible Statistical agency (made up of credible non political professionals) that will be run at arms-length from government and its funding hypothecated (Ring-fenced); to avoid any political interference. This agency should then be tasked with producing for the nation; key statistical measures every quarter that Nigerians can begin to trust. In the US, you have the Congressional Budget Office for instance which is seen as above politics. And its numbers accepted by all political parties; regardless of who is in power. In the UK you have the Independent Office of Budget Responsibilities; whose figures are independent of government and is chaired by a respected professional and not a civil servant. Every matured democracy sees the need for a reliable and trusted objective statistical agency. This will make it easier to at least agree (regardless of political affiliation) on the basic state of our economy, without political tint. The current statistical organization in Nigeria is useless and too wedded to the government of the day. There is also doubt as to its composition.

It will elevate out discuss and debate as a nation; if we can at least agree on some basic facts and then discuss around it. Right now the pro and anti Jonathan camps speaks as though they are talking about two separate countries rather than one nation. They both cannot be right. Every team sports need a referee; so a new credible statistical agency can begin to create some objective parameters to guide our debate.

Then you have the Subjective measures and parameters. These are less tangible measures. They are dependent on individual perception. These tend to vary vastly in any country and it is dependent of people’s personal experiences, media exposure and even personal preferences. It is consistent for people to disagree on Subjective parameters because it is a product of people’s perceptions and proclivities. This is where politics can be allowed to have its way as every party supporter will see things differently from non-supporters.

So back to Jonathan. What needs to be done is for the pro and anti Jonathan camps to explain what they mean by “President Jonathan is performing or not performing”.  Is that an Objective statement or Subjective conclusions. My personal opinion is that a lot of the pro-Jonathan camp’s case, is based on mainly subjective measures. In a democracy, they are clearly entitled to their opinion. But these should not be presented as credible Objective facts.

Finally; the only other explanation for the pro-Jonathan camp’s claim of his performance, could be what I called the epidemic of Implementation Gap in the country. If the last government approved XBillion naira for low cost loan to small businesses and President Jonathan now approve X+5 Billion naira for the same; his fans can claim he is performing. But the fact that the entire allocation was stolen by ten politicians and officials rather than given to the intended ten thousand small businesses is ignored. This is where the raw statistics has its limit. Corruption truncates any credible statistics. So in the end; I guess it will always be a combination of Objective and Subjective measures.

So the performance of this and any government will be judged by both a combination of credible statistical measures and how people feel in their pockets and personal circumstances. A hungry man does not give a damn about increased food supplies statistics.